Betting on sports can be a fun and exciting hobby, with the action sure to keep you on the edge of your seat.
Of all the sports you can wager on, horse racing is right up there as the most interesting – with some simple research, you can increase your chances of striking a winning bet on any given race. Like all sports, horse racing can be unpredictable and so you should always gamble responsibly with money you can afford to lose.
By following the tips below, hopefully you will enhance your chances of placing a winning bet or two.
Knowing the Odds
When you browse the horse racing odds for a race, let’s say the Epsom Derby in June, you will see a number assigned to each horse. These odds reflect the likelihood of each runner winning the race in the opinion of the bookmakers; so, in the Epsom Derby example, Auguste Rodin at 2/1 is considered much more likely to win than Adelaide River at 50/1.
Aidan O’Brien: “If we have a horse capable of doing the Triple Crown, Auguste Rodin is the one.” pic.twitter.com/xHs8107Cnk
— TDN (@theTDN) March 27, 2023
The odds can be translated into a percentage known as the implied probability using this calculation: denominator / (denominator + numerator) x 100. So, Auguste Rodin’s implied probability of winning is 33.3%.
You can apply this calculation to all of the horses within a race to find their individual win probabilities, and then begin to explore the key to all successful sports betting: finding those selections that have a greater chance of winning than their implied chance of success as per their odds. This is value betting, and you’ll need to be placing value bets as often as possible to maximize your chances of winning.
Studying the Form
How do you identify value bets in horse racing? Often, the answer can be found by studying the form guide. That’s not to say that surprise results don’t happen that confound the wisdom of the betting market – it’s amazing how often horses priced at odds of 100/1 or even longer win around the world in any given week.
14:20 @RedcarRacing
🥇 Runninwild 200/1
🥈 Maywake 18/1
🥉 Blowing Wind 11/8
A Win for @AnnDuffieldnews and @dallan555
Full Results here: https://t.co/ZszfOrnTAV#HorseRacing #Results pic.twitter.com/uHcwxkGlQS
— Horse Racing Results (@Racing_Results_) May 31, 2021
By sticking to the principles of value betting, you at least have the weight of probability on your side. When form is spoken of in horse racing, it refers to the individual horse’s most recent results. Have they been winning or performing well against similar or higher-grade opposition? Sometimes, a horse doesn’t even need to be winning races to be in ‘good form’ if they are competing admirably in a higher class of race before stepping down in grade.
Horses for Courses
The unique conditions of a race should also be considered. Some racecourses are idiosyncratic in nature, i.e. they have a tough uphill finish like Cheltenham, sharp bends or suit a frontrunning style. So, when analyzing the runners in a race, that have form at the particular venue should be prioritized.
Remember that horse races take place over different distances, from six-furlong sprints to four-mile marathons. Ideally, you should be betting on those that have shown form over the distance that the race you are studying entails.
You should consider the ‘going’, which is racing terminology for the firmness of the ground. Some horses thrive on faster surfaces, whereas others specialize in mudbaths and softer going There are plenty of moving parts to analyzing horse races and you certainly won’t get every one right – that’s before we consider the sheer unpredictability of the ‘sport of kings.’
This can be a fun and exciting hobby, and who knows maybe you’ll be able to pick out a winner or two along the way.
